*Ander, Simply put you provide great commentary, thoughts, and opinions. My opinions differ occasionally from yours. You believe that the potential rising rate environment will send oil back to where it came from -> #msg-5610608 - while I see a whole different ballgame.
I see a USD paper currency that must be bought by other currencies... 2 billion a day to maintain it's floating value. This currency is bought each day, is not bought by commodities or things of true value, and the currency buying it is not being backed by anything of true value, unless you like to put value in the international banking cartel. These are papers printed just like the USD to buy and prop up the dollar. The world is supporting the dollar and is making the wrong choice, eventually it will certainly unfold like a charmin that fell off of it's dispenser and out of a ten-story building.
OPEC no longer controls oil prices and neither does the Federal Reserve, we've seen interest rate hikes and we've seen OPEC pumping as much oil as they can. Laws of the market are now taking over, the only way the USD index gets pumped higher will not be by interest rate hikes but simply put would be done if the globe increased their net holdings of US Dollars in a quicker manner, that in itself is a cause for GLOBAL hyperinflation. The last great depression of 1929 was fairly localized, the global grid wasn't quite as complex. The last great depression's 1-2 punch went from housing bubble to stock bubble, this one is quite the opposite. The world is involved here, the world is tied together through a reserve paper currency, that being the U.S. dollar, the world is tied together through the trading of goods and commodities.
Now while the money supply and debt has increased to record levels across the globe, far greater then any media outlet would have you realize, commodities prices have somehow been capped. We are embarking on a new era now however, it's no mistake that despite the USD index maintaining and even rallying in 2005 that the CRB has nearly tested record highs and had a true breakout. The true value of commodities is beginning to be exposed, while foreign countries continue to buy the paper debt to support the world's reserve currency. The media doesn't expose this type of stuff, this kind of stuff is rather unprecedented, it's not yet a trend because Wall-Street hasn't said it, but I've never seen such occurrences occur in history.
Sure we've had similarities of what is taking place now, but the ingredients in this macroeconomic soup pot are coming together in a way that should have every citizen on this globe concerned. So if you're a foreign country, do you continue to buy US Dollars by the bushel to support the insane printing presses and spending of this country, do you inadvertantly support weapons of mass destruction that are being offered to foreign countries "in the name of democracy" such as Pakistan? Or as a leader, do you somehow attempt to protect your country by accumulating valued goods and commodities?
Sure the U.S. dollar index can rally, but it will only be at the expense of extremely vast PAPER money expansion... anyone can print papers on a printer off of their computer, what makes the international central banks paper more worthy? Especially a country on the road to ever-growing debts, deficits, and a tension in the middle-east that seems to have no withdrawl plans?
Now I will close by saying, you are a bright guy, we know this, we've often engaged in discussions that have motivated me to better my knowledge and I hope I've given you the same in return through these debates or discussions... call them what you will.
But in closing, I WILL say, that any global recession or even depression WILL be the cause of the internationally-tied central banks. They print the currency and they control its inheritable value against commodities. Think about it, they could literally go wild and print and print and print up paper and literally attempt to spend it as they please. We currently see this wild spending habit in our great country. Just think if other countries began to take advantage of the global paper scheme such as we have... so as I said, any WORLD ECONOMIC COLLAPSE will be the cause of the internationally-tied central banks and their abusive policies over history.
Amschel Mayer Rothschild once said: "Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation, and I care not who makes its laws."
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