it was the spring 00 peak that threw me off. I see the peak now as the sell off ocurred going into tax season, not where I thought it was on the march highs. everybody in the street interviews said dont worry it will come back.
well I am about 70% cash, which usually is as good a short term contrary indicator as anything else, so there, unless I am learning things.
On the other hand, as I have posted before, it seems possible that the utility of charts and indicators depend on non widespread knowledge. if everybody has them, (and I did not in spring 2000), then they can be read by the powers that be and manipulated?
Also the vxn spike does not tell the magnitude of the resulting change. if the grand cycle makers are right it still looks like thanksgiving for the vxn to get down some more.
if you knew a company was out of money, but also knew they had a great product that everybody needed, would you give them money? Probably yes. so it is the perceived change in trends that molds the market.
look at the charts of chtt and arxx and neoware. any individual stock does not have to follow and that makes this all the more fun. If I knew, I could have reversed all my losses over the last two years in the last 4 weeks
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