While the work you did to evaluate the S&P for 3 years is good practice. I feel your 1060 pull back target completely discounts resent & future economic factors. We had a major reccesion!
I have posted before keep charting simple, clean & basic, complexity causes errors. I think that complexity caused you to take a way to negative out look for the S&P index.
Keep things simple, clean & basic. Rule of thumb ! When the S&P gets 6 to 8% above or below the 50 day moving average a correction will move the price back to the 50 area.
Use these parameters on a 3 year to see how well this Rule fits.
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