Replies to post #112582 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

That's why you are so fixated to believe what RIGL said.

Not fixated at all. I have no skin in RIGL at all right now. Just doing DD to see if I want to take a position in the future. I'm asking you these questions to see if there are risks I am missing that could change my opinion on RIGL being worthy of an investment.

RIGL said the initial blood pressure increased only 2-3mm after on R788, let's assume this is true (use 3mm), the statistics I posted showed they dropped 16mm and 20mm for two treatment arms, thus mean blood pressure should have dropped at least 13mm, 17mm from baseline at 6-month for these patients. We also know overall mean blood pressure went up from baseline to 6-month for about 1mm. Combining these two data together, there are only two possibilities: 1. other patients' blood pressure went up dramatically to offset the drop of 13 and 17 to cause overall mean increase of just 1mm; 2. the 3mm increase cited is not true, thus the increase of blood pressure initially after taking R788 went up much much higher than 3mm.

Do you have a link to where you got this table showing data for just the fostimatinib patients that had an adjustment or initiation of anti-hypertension medication as a result of a blood pressure increase? Anyways, I see what you're saying now based on the table you are citing in terms of fostimatinib patients who either had an adjustment or initiation of anti-hypertension medication having the large drop in blood pressure at the end of 6 months while the overall mean shows just the miniscule increase in blood pressure at the end of 6 months. I would assume the other patients' blood pressure would not have gone up dramatically since, if it did, they would have been included in this group that either had an adjustment or initiation of anti-hypertension medication. We'll see if this means anything over the long-term.

Market is pricing the uncertainty - they don't believe what RIGL said. I happen to agree with the market pricing in this case at this stage.

Fair enough. I do like when the market prices in so much uncertainty and doubt. All it takes is some shift in sentiment and RIGL could go higher even before we get to the actual results next year. I take some solace in the fact that AZN was certainly well aware of the potential safety issues that we are discussing before it decided to do the deal with RIGL. It was reported that AZN is going to spend roughly $500M on the Phase 3 development program for fostimatinib. Although there are of course no guarantees in Phase 3, I don't think AZN would be willing to commit to such a large and expensive Phase 3 program if they weren't confident that the safety questions can be put to bed in Phase 3. AZN had access to much more detail behind the data and the drug than you or I.