Replies to post #112553 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

I don't know where they got the 2-3 mm increase during the first month. It is simply not true by deducting from other numbers they provided.

Look at this table, how could it be only 2-3 mm increase before medication adjustment when pre-med and 6-month differences in mean for treatment arms were down 16 and 20 mm while overall mean for all treatment groups still up? The only other possibility was other patients without medication adjustment had significantly higher blood pressure increase. Their explanations didn't add up.

Mean Systolic BP if had Adjustment or Initiation of BP Medication (mmHg)

# Had BP Meds Adjusted/Initiated 11 (7%) 27 (18%) 35 (23%)
BP Measurement
Pre-Adjustment/Initiation 139 149 153
At Month 6 136 128 138
Mean Change -4 -20 -16

I'm not entirely following your points or the numbers in the table you posted. Regardless of speculating on the blood pressure increase during the first month, what we know for a fact is that at the end of 6 months, there is a miniscule mean increase in blood pressure in fostimatinib arms of 0.5 - 1 mm. Would you agree that if this miniscule increase in blood pressure at the end of 6 months remains constant over time (and I realize there's a risk it may not) that there is not a strong likelihood that the fostimatinib arms will show a statistically significant increase in cardiovascular events relative to placebo (as is the case to date)? Also, would you agree that the market is effectively pricing in clinical, regulatory, or otherwise commercial failure for fostimatinib given RIGL's roughly $400M market cap?