Replies to post #112326 on Biotech Values

[ronpopeil]

When are earnings going to be reported?

[barsell]

What will the sales be? For the quarter ended Sept the company reported 44 million from the sales of Lovenox. That was for only 9 weeks of a 13 week quarter. It has also been posted that the 44 is less 35 mil due to development costs paid to its partner.

I confirmed this information in the 10Q foot notes. The 44 mil was net after a 35 mil one time reimbursement for development costs. So Lovenox earnings for the nine weeks was a normalized 79 million. Scripts written in forth quarter will be 3x that of the startup 3Q. Expect 227 mil for the 4th quarter or 4.54 per share from Lovenox.

When this becomes common knowledge expect share price to double. If Copexone is approved in the next few days expect price to double again.!!!!

[zipjet]

With scripts at 50%, what will the sales be for the quarter?

It will be very helpful to have a quarter without stocking to distort the data.

But for now we have to model without that.

I am using 48% share for the Q and come up with sales at the Sandoz level of $291M, NI for MNTA of $61M or eps of about $1.23.

I am letting the tax benefits flow through QxQ until used up. So those numbers are untaxed.

I will revise and think about 2011 after getting the 4Q data.

:-)

ij