Replies to post #112056 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

MNTA/TEVA—…or they'll practically stop talking about it from there on in and therefore implicitly guide the street that t-enox isn't really happening.

Which may allow Teva to convince the Judge that NVS/MNTA’s patent-infringement lawsuit should be dismissed as moot, averting legal discovery that might be highly embarrassing to Teva.

[zipjet]

What to make of Marth's comments today?

My view (inferences):

- increases the probability that tL is delayed/not-approvable;
- increases the probability that immunogenicity is a problem;
- increases the probability that FDA suggests TEVA refile;
- increases the probability that the tL approval overhang will end;
- dramatically shortens the time to end of the overhang;
- tells us nothing about whether tL WILL be approved;
- legal IS now actively guiding Marth.

ij

PS - Options, just for DD.

I am short (writer) of both MNTA calls and puts expiring Jan 22. Even when MNTA was peaking, the puts at 14 (which should have dropped) were up in price. On a rise of this significance that is very rare.

Maybe Peter understands that behavior - but I don't. (Sure I could say the IV just jumped, but I can't recall ever seeing it happen that dramatically.