Replies to post #112035 on Biotech Values

[dewophile]

of course you are correct - the end of jan was essentially a handshake promise, and this is an agency that has even failed to meet quite a few PDUFA dates the last few years

then again i would think the mere possibility of an announced delay in tL by end of january should have at least some of the shorts scrambling..could be an interesting month

[oldberkeley]

Dew- Just to clarify this in my own mind and I apologize if I'm trying to put too fine a point on one comment from one speaker:

Did Marth say that Teva expects a formal FDA reply by the end of the month, or that they were told this by the FDA?

Is your qualification of the remark based on doubting Marth's word, or the inexactitude of some FDA timelines?

TIA.

[Rocky3]

Options players risk losing money by knowing less about Lovenox event timing than they think they do.

And long owners risk losing money by knowing less about Lovenox event timing (and final result) than they think they do.

And shorts risk losing money by knowing less about Lovenox event timing (and final result) than they think they do.

So, you take your chances no matter how you play the game.

IMO, you make money "taking tarts when they are passed." With the huge increase in implied volitility today, money was given away to those who sold volatility. If something happens in the next few days to cause the stock to move 50% either way, the buyers (of volatiltiy) will have been right. They have not been right for 4 years or more but maybe their day is coming.

The spreads are still huge, but the opportunity loss for those not participating is also huge.

JMO.