Laird!!! Thank you for posting. That is a spectacular portrayal of my views almost across the board. I wonder if it's true. Esp the 25%. Nontheless the handwriting is on the wall.
<<<Speculators now account for 25% of all purchases, and an additional 13% are vacation houses, making market very likely to go into free-fall when they all sell.>>>
Get this : my realtor (a personal friend) just told me that many of the homes that come up in my area, which by the way is still white hot (northern VA) , are being bought by non other than , you guessed it , realtors!
A number of her associates who get listings, which are tough to get in the first place, are buying the homes on spec rather than put them on the MLS.They'll hold them unocuppied for months, to sell for whatever gains the mkt bears,,, 40k , 50k...like that. Talk about a frenzy. (mind you, this area is busting at the seems w/ jobs and too few homes to house them, pushing building further and further out into the 'country')
And this: I happen to know first hand, that although the MD shore is hot, there is an abundance of rentals, many going un rented even in prime season, excellent locations. Too much inventory! This has been going on pushing 2 yrs. Yet, a realtor, yes a professional (sister of a neighbor), just bought a condo in that area, expecting to rent it and have it appreciate. GOOD LUCK!
Anyone missing out on the homie shorting opps, might want to take another look. They are holding they're own, but have been good to hit on pops. Almost mirroring the recent 'buy the dips' , but not quite, because we've been in a range,,they haven't broken down yet. Remains to be seen. They could still rally yet again.
Again, thanks for the piece.
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
