Replies to post #111275 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Another possibility is that these stocks are running in anticipation of news at the JPM conference in a couple of weeks, which is a pattern we’ve seen in prior years.

[oc631]

it looks like IDIX's contention that 3 drug cocktail would be necessary is gaining credence
this should benefit all HCV bios with oral agents at or approaching phase 2 imo
this could be why idix, achn, etc. have all been running up
just a hunch

It would have been more surprising IMO if VX-222/Telaprevir didn't experience viral breakthrough without SOC because both classes (non-nuke/PI) have a documented low barrier of resistance to mutation. Now VRTX has to look to ribavirin to salvage their strategic shortcomings in oral development (good luck). VRTX's strategy was flawed and I predict they will be licensing a nuke by the end of Q1/11. This explains the movement today in INHX (+16%) even after the failure of FV-100.

Seven day PSI-939 monotherapy has shown greater efficacy than PSI-7128/RG7227 without SOC. So the 2ND generation guanine nuke has better efficacy than the the first generation nuke plus a PI. There is no reason to believe a two drug combo isn't still viable.