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kraftdinner

03/21/05 8:43 AM

#12930 RE: xerxes #12928

re BNK, Morgan Stanley put out a report on the Palo Duro Basin Basin Friday, some of the main points were
- they DON'T expect the Barnett play in Texas to be a one-of shale play
- they mention Vintage Petroleum and BNK as being the big acreage holders in the area, that EOG is looking for another shale play in Texas, and they expect other players
- they estimate unrisked potential of 1.55 TCF per 100k acres (2.94 TCF for Vintage on 190k acres, 3.34 TCF for BNK on 216k acres)
- acreage costs have gone from $10 last year to $50
- they feel it is comparable to the Barnett play as even though the total organic content (TOC) of Palo Duro is less lower (estimated 2.5% vs 4% for Barnett) the Palo Duro is generally thicker
- still need to determine the best way to frac, this expense might turn out to be a little cheaper than Barnett due to natural fracturing, it has a non-water bearing seal and the presense of sand stringers
- Vintage has drilled a well for a core sample, we find out the results in about four weeks, after that will do a completion test on a second well that is currently drilling

-Petroglobe is another company (not mentioned in the report) with a 10% interest in 65,000 acres of Vintage's land.

-Tyner Resources has small interest in some of Bankers land.

All potential mentioned above in unrisked, so apply your own discount.

EDIT: this kind of reminds me of ELH all over again, hopefully I fair better



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Frank Pembleton

03/21/05 5:26 PM

#12934 RE: xerxes #12928

X ... same situation as you-- I sold when the secondary peak (at $1.43) appeared ... I didn't even wait for it to cross the 10-day MA (rule number #1 to completely catch the parabolic rise). I took profit mainly because I was in the stock since the end of November, sitting on huge gains and becoming weary of the energy sector.

...as for a re-entry...?

I haven't the foggiest idea.