You are taking this too hard and too wrong.
Someone asked me why I was bearish and you were bullish.
My point was that you are not always correct.
No one is always correct.
Yes you have had some fantastic calls.
But at the beginning of the year you had a high this year on the naz of 3000+
Did you not make that call?
I believe you did.
Yes you changed your mind, and turnips are allowed to do that.
Yes you had a brilliant nasacre call in June that was 100% correct. But you were also calling for lower lows getting bearish right near the March bottom. I am not sure if I pointed that out in my post or not. Only after a huge march rally did turnips decide they were wrong getting only the last portion of the up. I believe if I am not mistaken that turnips wanted more up after that march rally but it did not come.
I am not trying to "pull a Mark Johnson" on you.
I was asked a question that was more or less "why are you not religiously following Zeev's calls".
I listed a few reasons. No more no less.
My post was not intended to be a slam of Zeev as you seem to have taken it. You have had fantastic calls yet I can find a post from you admitting some pretty awful calls as well(such as calling for a retest that never came last November), and many others. I believe you also thought that last Nov was the bottom and would only be breached mildly if at all.
I can say hats off to the turnips for changing their mind frequently enough to stay on the right side of things.
If I am also not mistaken you claim only 60% accuracy in your calls. If that is indeed correct then the turnips are wrong quite often. Again, I was pointing out some of those times BUT I WAS IN NO WAY BEING CRITICAL.
No one on my board that I am aware of thought that post was critical of you.
Everyone is entitled to be wrong.
Everyone will be wrong whether or not they are entitled or not.
The background behind that post that you did not see was simply why I would choose to remain in leap puts when you think the bottom is in.
My reply was simply that I do not think you are correct and, WITH NO OFFENSE INTENDED cited a few examples (which may or may not have been the best ones, or ones that you agree with at all). I suppose I could have hunted down the post where you admitted a bunch of bad calls but with SI search engine being what it is I doubt I could have found it.
I value your friendship, but unfortunately I am not sure I still have it or not.
No one expects turnips to have every call correct. In fact by your own admisson we are only to expect 60% accuracy (but I think you are better than that, way better).
That said, I also think you are wrong about a cyclical bull market thru May. One of us is correct and one of us is wrong.
I will primarily play the short side until proven wrong, but I am concentrating on the weak ones like S GM F GT IBM so I do not think I will get annahilated even if I am incorrect. I just do not see a bull market thru May when we could not even manage one in better times last year. Balance of trade, Debt, consumer led recession, housing looks past peak, and derrivative problems, and loan problems with Brazil and South America are my reasons. At best sideways thru May then down hard.
That said "Hat's off to Turnips" fo being willing to share your ideas with other and provide guidance and insight on a wide range of topics.
I offer sincere apologies for any problems or slightings that you feel I have caused.
Mish
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