Hey buddy -
Your analysis, as always, is sound.
When I do play these kind of situations, my approach is almost always the same - I do not (hardly ever) go out of the money on calls on possible takeover/buyouts after an announcement like this...I just have not ever gotten a winner going out of the money. I stay in the money and hope I am right and the deal either goes forward or someone else joins the bidding.
IF you are already in @ the 70 offer, then you would need to decide IF there may be another bidder in the industry. If not, I would sell quickly and reenter in the money.
Again, there will be others who do differently from me, but I like in the money (or barely out of the money) when there is an offer on the table yet to be accepted. Big thing is if there is another possible bidder, in the same sector, with the available cash to become a potential buyer.
Hopefully, sometime we will go much further in depth on finding potential buyers and targets, as this is a great way to make some bucks and not that difficult to understand and analyse IMO...
I like in the money on these type of plays, under the proposed takeover amount...
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