Replies to post #110911 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

VRUS is lucky I'm not CFO aside from being highly unqualified for the position I would've diluted like crazy quite some time ago .

LOL And VRUS would be crazy not to dilute now. The stock has had a hell of a run and I really think they should use the run to their advantage and do a nice offering here. They'd be in a great position if they did so.

I actually enjoy listening to Price talk he sounds all gung ho but something bothers me a bit about this company and I can't quite put my finger on it.

It's been awhile since I've listened to one of their presentations but I agree in that I do recall enjoying listening to Price's presentations. I think VRUS is in a great position. Given IDIX's issues with the clinical hold, you have to think they are absolutely in the lead now for partnering a 2nd/3rd gen HCV nuke and otherwise the dominant company in the HCV nuke space. And given that nukes are projected to form the backbone of HCV therapy in the future, that's quite a position to be in. The question is always, what's the right value for the stock given where they are? I just am never comfortable chasing a stock that has had a hell of a run and they do now sport about a $1.6B market cap. But, if you compare it to where VRTX is now at an almost $7B market cap, it doesn't sound so unreasonable. I honestly don't know what to think about the stock. I still question why Roche hasn't already partnered with them for their follow-on nukes, if not otherwise bought VRUS out. Perhaps one of those events is coming soon or is there something else at play? I don't know. If they did a real nice offering, I know I would be more inclined to consider VRUS. ; )

[mcbio]

VRUS @ DB BioFEST (12/14/10)

This is a very short 20-minute presentation so I thought I'd give a listen as I hadn't listened to a VRUS webcast in awhile. A few interesting notes:

1. There was an initial question of how VRUS could be confident that its ongoing Phase 1 combo trial of its two nukes, PSI-7977 and PSI-938, won't have tox issues given lack of pre-clinical testing of the combo together (obviously asked in light of the issues that IDIX had with the IDX184/320 combo data). The response was that nukes don't use the CYP450 pathway as say PIs, non-nukes, NS5As do. But I wouldn't think this was the issue for IDIX given that 320 is a PI and 184 is a nuke so it's not like you had multiple drugs working through the CYP450 pathway. I'd be curious to hear others' thoughts on that. Either way, getting data from this Phase 1 7977/938 combo trial in 1Q11 is presumably a fairly key event for VRUS in light of IDIX's combo issues (and another reason why I think an offering here makes a lot of sense).

2. There was an indication that VRUS will "in time" partner 7977. There was certainly no vibe that any partnership is imminent. When asked about partnering 938 in comparison to 7977, Price kind of paused then huffed before indicating that it was a tough question. He said that before VRUS thought it would not partner 938 before 7977 but basically the 938 program moved much faster than they expected and you had data which showed you could get a 2 log drop in 1 day with 938 and a better resistance profile compared to a 2 log drop in 3 days with 7977. So, basically, the 938 data made 7977 look a little less attractive between the two for partnering (although both drugs obviously are designed to work together). So, now presumably I infer prospective partners only want 7977 if they get access to 938 but it sounds like VRUS wants "unfettered access" to 938 to use in conjunction with 7977 in a nuke-nuke combo. Price said they want much better deal terms than they got in the Roche deal for RG7128. It will be interesting to see at what point VRUS does a partnership for 7977 and 938 (assuming continued clinical success), but my take away from the presentation is that it's likely going to be some partnership deal for 7977 and 938 together as opposed to individually and VRUS is going to have very stringent demands for any potential deal.

3. There was hardly any reference to RG7128 at all, which is still of course VRUS' lead nuke, albeit a 1st gen nuke.