SGZH You can't just "go forward from Q4/10", what do you mean by that? This is not a scalable business, SGZH is already mining more coal than they are officially allowed to and my projection for production (200k + 700k tons) is already higher than the permitted 180k + 600k.
Also, the brokerage business is just them buying up coal from small neighboring mines and selling it through their infrastructure and channels. They are doing a good job there, Q3 was excellent and Q4 will be too if we believe the ambitious guidance.
I have also thoroughly explained why the lower margins are NOT a matter of the mine closure. Please look at the paragraph about operating costs again. You can't just assume the local and provincial government would cancel all those fees, nor is it realistic to project that payroll and related expenses could just be rolled back to 2009 levels. And there is also a payment due for mining permits at the end of the year.
Don't focus so much about the re-opening of Xing An. SGZH sold TWICE as much coal from Xing An in Q3/10 (mine closed) than a year ago when the mine was still operating. They can broker coal from neighboring mines at approximately the same costs as the coal that the company mines.
Real growth will come only from acquisitions, not acquisitions of small neighbors but a large mine in a different area with different customers etc. - the Xing An re-opening does not necessarily increase sales, should just improve gross margins by 5-10%.
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