Replies to post #4782 on Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[treit2002]

John,

You imply that the figures 4 and 8 are single "orders" for new farms. Rather, I believe these figures are simply management's projection or targets.

Likewise, there is no timetable to begin construction. Presumably SIAF would like to sign partners and begin as many as soon as they can.

Perhaps prospects want to see actual fish sales before commencing, but there is no mandate to do so, nor is there any existing agreement dependent on milestones from the first farm.

Please, let me know if I have this wrong, and why.

Thanks

[Florinda]

John, excellent points. Thanks. I'd much rather be conservative in estimating such things. I now better understand why that Swedish journalist emphasized that SIAF was an "unproven" investment since so much is riding on the success of their first fish farm. Still, as Bsirola just emphasized, the company with its already existing enterprises is set to make .49 eps next year and this in itself makes SIAF a good investment. And Chads point that "income from construction, lisc. and franchise fees" will help smooth things out is also a noteworthy point.

I'm confident that they'll work out the kinks--if there are many--with the pilot fish farm. But until that's proven, especially while remaining on the pinksheets, the mega growth prospects of SIAF will understandably be relegated to the speculative stock pile for many. Hopefully they've been a bit conservative in the tonnage of fish the farm will produce so if the transplant from Australia to China ends up dimminishing the output somewhat it will still clock in at or very near their projected numbers. Perhaps a bigger unknown is will buyers pay the price for the fish that management is estimating. However, given that fish prices rarely go down where I live, I assume the same is true in China and that management is using market place figures to base their estimates off of.

As usual, at least with investors, we'll just have to wait and watch it all unfold. Yet, clearly, so much so for my thought SIAF might not go down as much as other stocks in this space!

Thanks again,

Steve