Replies to post #110369 on Biotech Values

[Mpower]

MNTA could price M118 quite aggressively (i.e. compete with generics on pricing and the orals) and still make a sizeable fortune, assuming their partnership deal is well structured. That is why I suspect this raise was triggered to help MNTA posture itself for negotiations with potential partners.

The anticoagulant market is huge (my wife (internal medicine M.D.) is not allowed to prescribe Lovenox at her hospital because it is so darn expensive). As cost continues to come down, product use will increase commensurately. As such, overall revenue for anticoagulants should remain stable (and may even increase over time).

M118 can be very profitable, even if it takes 5 years, it would still be a blockbuster, and well worth the wait.

[DewDiligence]

Does anyone think that M118's potential has not been harmed, at least potentially, by the recent success of the oral agents…?

To date, none of the new oral anticoagulants has succeeded in ACS. Thus, the harm to M118 from these agents has not been the competition per se, but rather the removal of certain companies from the universe of MNTA’s prospective partners.

[dewophile]

3-5 years is a long time for an oral agent to attempt to expand its indications and maybe gain traction.

This may never happen, but given the uncertainty, it may be difficult to get a partner to put up hundreds of million to bring this to a market that may look radically different in 5 years.

i think this is hurting negotiations, but as dew has pointed out the oral Xa inhibitors are not looking all that promising in ACS. the oral thrombin inhibitor may fare better, but if M118 can best angiomax (another direct thrombin inhibitor) then i think it stands to reason docs will perceive Xa with IIa inhibition the best route in ACS and M118 will find a commercial home

And all this, ironically, in competition with a much cheaper generic lovenox as well

lovenox is not that cheap even with menox on the market, and doesn't inhibit thrombin so is not used much in the M118 space. more cconcerning is that angiomax will also be nearing its patent expiry by the time m118 theoretically hits the scene.

if no partners are biting now then mnta likely needs to run a fairly robust 2b against angiomax. it will be costly, but if successful the upside could be substantial

jmo

[jbog]

Tinkershaw,

If my memory serves me right I remember that Momenta has had 3 scientific presentations regarding M118 over the last couple of years. I don't recall the street ever expressing their impressions of M118 with anything but a big yawn.

It's going to be interesting to see how this prices out considering that the stock is currently at or below the 50/200 day moving averages.

I'll just wait and see.