Replies to post #43502 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[mjk]

"Apparently there are many operators placing there bets otherwise"

Yes, and those debt laden carriers who spent billions on spectrum will have to receive vendor financing from the likes of Nok and Ericcson to ever get their W-CDMA systems up. Lots of cash problems with those carriers, meanwhile the 2G CDMA carriers are upgrading their entire systems in existing spectrum with no problems and little cost.

"Hmmm, I thought NTT's system was working, did they turn it off."

I guess I should have distinguished working from working well. There's a reason they've got customer totals in the thousands after a year and KDDI signs up that many in a month...phone returns and system bugs don't make for a working system IMO.

"Are your conclusions solely based on one operator in Japan..."

No, Japan, Korea, China, the U.S., Canada, plenty are on board or are getting on board.

"Then there is Hutchison with 2 different systems which will go commercial."

WILL GO COMMERCIAL, exactly, so it's not up and running yet. How long will it take to work the bugs out of that system? Years.

"All this for something that does not work....Is QCOm selling WCDMA chips that don't work, or is it that their's is the only working one... I am confused now."

There's a difference between a working chipset and and properly working network, still confused?


"Can you really compare a 40-70KBPS data speed for 1X to the 384K claimed by NTT?"

Now that seems like an unfair argument wouldn't you agree, you quote the average speed for 1X (which will vary depending on the network, time of day, etc) and the peak claimed by NTT...and the problem there, NTT's system doesn't work well, so who cares what they claim. What are NTT's average rates, on a working phone?

Like I said, if there's any demand, which who knows when there will be, it'll be another easy upgrade to 3X or HDR. The carriers will tell QCOM and the equipment manufacturers if they want it or not.

[phill]

extel, re: OT, Lol, Apparently there are many operators placing there bets otherwise...

Yes, the EU providers have bet heavily on the ease of a GSM/GPRS/wCDMA transition and are just beginning to realize what a bill of goods they were sold by NOK, et al.

Are your conclusions solely based on one operator in Japan... The 3G systems are just beginning.


1X systems are a smash hit in Korea, where the major providers had previously announced they would be switching to wCDMA. It has become pretty obvious that such a switch will never take place in Korea.

1X has also given PCS and VZ Wireless the opportunity in the US to move out ahead of Cingular, in particular, among the US GSM providers, and they seem to be doing so even as we discuss this. Cingular, lagging badly in the wireless sweepstakes, just let their top guy go, replacing him with an operations guy, who may just be the one to bring Cingular over to the CDMA2000 side. We shall see. AWE will be a tougher nut to crack, as it still has a major financial commitment from DoCoMo and those billions of yen could (would!) be retracted if AWE moved toward the QCOM camp.

Hmmm, I thought NTT's system was working, did they turn it off.

In a phrase, the DoCoMo system sucks, and DoCoMo is in quite a dither about what to do about it.

Isn't there another WCDMA in Japan also, going or gone commercial.

Sorry, I'm not aware of any such operational system.

Then there is Hutchison with 2 different systems which will go commercial.

Hutch is technology agnostic. It will go with the winner, based on local circumstance. Hutch is, imho, and will continue to be, a good barometer of who is winning the war.

And What about Ericsson and NOK with some 60 WCDMA customers. Ericsson claims 10,000 base stations shipped... All this for something that does not work....

Now you're getting the picture. Imagine the fury in the corporate board rooms of Europe as they slowly realize how much they've spent on a loser, based on the misleading puffery of NOK and ERICY!

Is QCOm selling WCDMA chips that don't work, or is it that their's is the only working one... I am confused now.


QCOM's wCDMA chips are the best of breed, and QCOM has expressed contentment with the possibility of getting wCDMA up and running (for obvious reasons - it would give them a much bigger market than the one limited to their present CDMA customers). Unfortunately for the Europeans, the development of these chips, and the devices they would operate, still lags considerably behind their CDMA2000 alternatives.

Yes, the upgrade from IS95 to CDMA2000 is cheaper than putting in a new WCDMA system, but only for an EXISTING 2G CDMA Customer. What is the cost comparison for a brand new system implemented in 3G designated spectrum?

This was formerly "true", but QCOM can now provide an overlay system that works with GSM. I am waiting. with bated breath, for somebody to adopt it. That event will be, imho, the mother of all QCOM buy signals.

Can you really compare a 40-70KBPS data speed for 1X to the 384K claimed by NTT?

KDDI is pounding the snot out of DoCoMo's "384k" system in the marketplace. Need I say more?

By the way, what will QCOM call 1X-EVDV when/if it gets here? 4G

In theory, it's still 3G. In fact, it's a way out yet.

Perhaps this helps ?

regards,

phill