Replies to post #42806 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[brainlessone]

mlsoft, I took a look at the m1 and m2 and m3 charts. if you figure that the difference between m1 and m2 are all the money market funds, then there is 4 trillion dollars just sitting around hibernating. can this be possible?

and m2 has 400 billion lying around since sept 01

thats a lot of nasdaq, considering the total nasdaq is what
15 trillion? actually I think less

could we get monetary deflation and commodity inflation?

so you short everything and buy solar panels and gas pipelines?

[leon]

mlsoft, as i said, i think we're right on track for the pull-back/decline to happen right about now. among other things, i'm curious to see if we close fri. below mon. opening. if so, that will be a strong indication of a reversal in progress. i think the only potential fly in the ointment to the scenario we forsee is one fed reserve just touched upon; that is if the ecb also cuts tomorrow. that could forestall any imminent decline for a bit longer. good luck with your open positions.

[Joe Stocks]

Mlsoft, I think the Fed has about accomplished what it wanted to for this go around. IMO the FEd knows longer term that valuations are too high and must come down. Their main goal is to avoid a crash scenario. If you read back over some of their white sheets they tend to show a real fear of a "crash" and spend much time discussing how to avoid one. I think their main goal now is to control the rate of descent. Sure they would love to see a sustained recovery but I think a bunch of us know that it's not going to happen anytime soon. I think they know that but they also can't let the market go straight down. The PPT must time their involvment to get the greatest impact with the resources available to them. I think they will back off for a week or two here and maybe pick the efforts back up near Thanksgiving as they take advantage of the giddishness of the holiday season. New lows after the first of the year 2003 IMO.

I'm also very short tech here so I would just love my scenario to play out. I'm also very long some utility stocks. Here's to a big down day tomorrow. Half point cut - what were they thinking!

Joe

[yankee]

mlsoft, I am beginning to question whether the PPT is going to go away until someone decides that the economy has fully recovered in 2004 or 2005.

I could understand the PPT's existence when the market was continuously sinking. The PPT was there to prevent panic and calamitous gut wrenching drops. Their job was to let the air out slowly.

But after the market gains of the last month I would have thought they would allow the market to resume meandering on it's on. Yet, in my opinion, we are still seeing their intervention if the market starts to drop. Maybe now that they have learned they can control the market they have adopted an expanded long term agenda.

I am beginning to think of the PPT as a possible semipermanent fixture of the market.

If we don't see a convincing retreat soon I am going to come to the conclusion that bears may be denied any food for the next year or so until the economy is back running full tilt.




Yankee