Replies to post #109439 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

If they launch [Copaxone] or not would depend on if MNTA/NVS believes they would win that lawsuit.

What I’m saying is I don’t think NVS/MNTA will launch unless they have already won in the District Court. Launching after winning in the District Court still incurs risk of reversal on appeal, but it’s very much less risky than launching without a win in the District Court.

[DewDiligence]

If they didn't think they would win that lawsuit, I don't believe they would have picked Copaxone as a drug to partner.

I disagree. The Copaxone patents in the Orange Book expire in May 2014, so generic Copaxone in the US figures to be a lucrative and longstanding product for NVS/MNTA even if they can’t manage to knock out Teva’s patents.

Copaxone is an ideal drug for MNTA to genericize for the US market because:

• It has large sales.

• It’s a synthetic drug that’s priced like a biologic, which means the profit margin is sky-high.

• The structure is complex, and no one but MNTA has the technology to characterize and reverse-engineer it to the FDA’s standards.