NASARAVI - Why not another 50 day long Phase II? I don't have any crystal ball, all I can go by is what has happened in the past, and assume the patterns will continue until they change. That's why I use averages. I didn't say we would NEVER see another 50 day Daily Phase II cycle, however,I believe it is unlikely that we will see another one during this Bull market. The average for a Monthly Phase II is 18 months, the average High - Low in a Monthly Phase II is 298 points. During this last Daily Phase II that lasted 52 trading days the High - Low was 187 points which was well over the average of 62 points.
My current forecast for the next Monthly Phase I is March 2012 and the next Bear Market forecast is July 2012.
If you have noticed on the Daily Report the Monthly target is 1309.14 by March 2012. So that means I am expecting the high of this Bull market to be 1309.14. It could go alot higher like the last Daily Phase II did. The weekly is currently 42 points over the forecasted target. The record Monthly High/Low difference is 748 points. So that means the SPX could go as high as 1758.91. The 748 points took 45 months.
As of today the SPX is 109.41 points from the Monthly target.
When and if the SPX gets to the Monthly target area, I will have to see how the other timeframes are lined up.
Currently the Daily SPX looks like the Phase I may be about to end. So I would expect the Daily Phase II to last over 6 trading days. If the Daily Phase II lasts less than the Daily Phase I, that could be an early indication of a major direction change in conjunction with the other secondary indicators.
Bottom Line: I'm expecting the Bull Market to continue for atleast another month.
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