Replies to post #108835 on Biotech Values

[DFRAI]

The best scenarion for MNTA , is where FDA

approves TEVA for a non-substitutable generic by the end of the year.

[iwfal]

OK, conservatively... MNTA will 'earn' $250M - $300M per year from m-enoxaparin

You are forgetting that after the first $250M in sales they will have to pay taxes. OTOH I tend to believe that their pre-tax earnings haven't yet hit their stride. Nonetheless in aggregate (of these two effects) I'd be surprised if they made $300M/Yr cash*.

*As I was helped to understand, from an earnings standpoint MNTA could claim a large bolus of revenue from the tax benefit. Hence it is easier to discuss cash flows.

[10nisman]

MNTA

Let's round this down to $75M per quarter. OK, conservatively... MNTA will 'earn' $250M - $300M per year from m-enoxaparin

FWIW, below are my conservative assumptions (assuming no new generic Lovenox approval):

Quarterly mLovenox revenue: $275 million (assumes $1.1 billion run-rate)
Gross Profit (60%): $165 million
MNTA's portion (45%): $74.3 million
Quarterly cash burn (net of R&D revenue): $17 million
Net Profits: $57.3 million
Taxes (35%) or $20 million less NOL ($20 million): $0 million
After-tax free-cash flow: $57.3 million

MNTA's Federal NOL at the end Q2 2010 was approximately $270 million. Assuming MNTA generates identical Q4 2010 quarters as the one estimated above (i.e., no revenue growth or additional expenditure spend), MNTA should be able to avoid any tax liability until Q4 2011 and have a cash balance north of $320 million (including Sandoz receivable) or approximately $6-7 per share by the end of Q3 2011.

I expect MNTA will sign a lucrative M-118 partnership by Q2-Q3 2011 if mLovenox remains the sole generic.

10nis