The consumer is not done yet (otherwise, why is the economy still growing, so not as rapidly as the numbers are showing). We are going to have a year end bump (no as robust as most would want), and that could create enough momentum upward. The real question is if some capital budgets are going to be released or not. If they do, that could counter balance consumer problems, if they don't then overall the next recession may start earlier than expected. I don't think it is imminent, though. You got to take into account that the government has released a bunch of funds into the economy since the end of May when the debt ceiling was lifted (national debt increased by 280 billions or so in a short five months), that massive injection of liquidity (blood) into the economy should be sufficient to keep the consumer afloat for another six months. If that start and prime the pump (through the multiplier effect of fed money flowing in the economy and creating more economic activity), it can have longer staying power.
Zeev
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