Hi punkle,
I'm not betting big on a big November, either. I've been slowly, steadily selling (raising cash %) into this rally and will continue to do so. I have too much respect for the accumulated wisdom I read here to do otherwise.
My point about the Fall Rallies was simply that they have been frequent and have consistently run for quite some time and for quite a few points.
The Nasdaq (COMPQ) increase for the month of October just ended was about 13.6%. By contrast, in 1998, the combined October/November increase was about 18.2%, in 1999 it was about 24.4%, and in 2001 about 29.3%. And all of these runs ('98, '99, '01) started from higher bases, so the point increases were much greater than we've had yet this fall.
All fwiw. Good luck to you.
regards,
phill
ps did you see the October "bear killer" post (#41340)? More history <g>
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