Replies to post #41143 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[plexus]

Punkle MSFT is breaking out huge tonight breaking out of a double bottom that measures into the 63 area...given the weighting it has on the indices they should follow early next week with the Dow taking out 8550 and the SP500 taking out 905...the Naz already took out 1350 today....im looking for 1425 on the Naz near term. All systems go for a long side ramp here imo.

[Zeev Hed]

punkle, too late now, but really, if you short, you got to cover the moment the issue prints a new recovery high, or at least no more than another buck or two, right now KLC could still spike above $41, and if it takes that, it could run straight to $50. KLAC is the second strongest stock in the sector after CCMP, IMTO) and shorting the strongest stock is never a good tactic. VECO is a much better short, for instance shorting VECO when I donned ny teddy bear suit on 10/24 (around $12.5) would have caused you no heart ache , it spiked to just under $14 and is still around the $12.5 range. If a major downdraft occurs, you can expect to cover at $9 or so, but KLAC may not go much under $30 in a major down draft.

Zeev

[phill]

If history is a guide, this thing could run a while yet.

10 of the past 11 years, we've had a substantial rally, starting somewhere between early Sept and mid Oct.

In 1999, 1998 and 1992 the rally ran until the end of the year, or beyond. In 1997, it ran about 6 weeks, then collapsed. In 1996, it ran about 3 months; in 1995 and 1993, about 1 month; in 1994, it ran a bit less than a month.

So far this time, we've run for 3 weeks, which makes this the shortest October rally of the most recent 10.

regards,

phill