Replies to post #5867 on Tronox Inc. (TROX)

[everett7]

You can look at monthly operating reports and see that net income is already almost $1 billion per year, very similar to Kronos, where do you get $30-$50??

[everett7]

Sorry I meant net sales $1 billion per year - same as Kronos which has a $2.5 billion market cap, that is their most comparable competitor, TI02 is on fire right now, Kronos has already quadrupled over the past year and they have only $1 billion in net sales per year as well. Just comparing apples to apples

[everett7]

Tronox and Kronos have the same amount of net sales per year ($1 billion), the same amount of assets (around $1.5 billion) and similar net income numbers (Kronos actually had NEGATIVE net income for 2009), and yet their market cap is still $2.5 billion.

I gave a CONSERVATIVE estimate that Tronox would start out with a $1.5-2.0 billion market cap. It should be the exact same as Kronos . . .

[thewind]

"Tronox prepared the Projections in June 2010 reflecting estimates and market conditions at that time,
including a projected exit from chapter 11 on October 1, 2010. Since May 2010, Tronox has outperformed the
Projections and it is currently evaluating whether the changes in market conditions and the prolonged chapter 11
cases will have a material effect on the projections."

From page 6 of your post

Was any of this calculated with the price increase of TiO2 taken into consideration?

I think the new stock for kronos has been issued... so say 41.18m shares on June 30, 2010 at 19.50 a pop equals cap at 803b

they have doubled up since then and put more chips on the table

[ofirm]

"Tronox prepared the Projections in June 2010 reflecting estimates and market conditions at that time,
including a projected exit from chapter 11 on October 1, 2010. Since May 2010, Tronox has outperformed the
Projections and it is currently evaluating whether the changes in market conditions and the prolonged chapter 11
cases will have a material effect on the projections."
That is a quote from the document in your link. the management
will always try to be conservative (especially when that will
determine how much liabilities they will have). they have no
incentive to create expectations (before bk exit).
I would only say that over the next 3 years tio2 will be in
balance or even in slight short supply and due to demand from
growing areas the outlook is decent (especially in dollar terms).
Hope I am right and if I am than we would be in the money within
a year to 18 month on the first set and probably close to it on
the second set.
good luck to all.