So the question becomes - what will Tronox PPS be on emergence from bankruptcy, and how high could it potentially be several years from now?
Kronos hit $45 today, and it has 57 million shares outstanding, so market cap equals $2.5 billion.
Huntsman is around $15, and it has 240 million shares outstanding, so market cap equals $3.3 billion.
According to that filing, there will be 15 million shares issued for the new Tronox. Let's assume ULTRA conservatively that the market cap for Tronox when it comes out of BK is $1.5 billion, that comes out to an opening day PPS of $100 per share. That is a value per warrant of $35 per share.
Every holder of common stock will get .03 shares of warrants for every current share of common stock, so if you hold 200K shares, you will get 6000 warrants.
Now, 6000 warrants times $35 per share equals $210,000 - that assumes a current PPS of over $1 per share at our current trading levels.
That assumes a $1.5 billion market cap, now let's go with a more realistic $2 billion market cap. That comes out to an opening day PPS of $133 per share, which is a value per warrant of $65 per share.
6000 warrants times $65 per share equals $390,000, or almost $2 per share at current trading levels.
The irony of this whole thing is that WE ARE GOING TO BENEFIT IN THE END FROM THE COMPANY LOWBALLING IT'S TRUE VALUE. This thing is going to open over $100 PPS because there will be so few shares outstanding at first issuance. It should have a comparable market cap to Kronos and Huntsman.
Looks like those big boys buying really know what they're doing after all . . .
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