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jbog

11/05/10 1:24 PM

#108206 RE: DewDiligence #108202

Dew,

We are now seeing the creation of a new bubble (probably has a lot of room to go) but sooner or later it'll bust.

Every now and then we see a glint of sunshine, only to be followed by rain. We simply have no clear drivers in this economy. We continue to prop up our bad sectors without fixing any of the underlying problems.

Time will tell.
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DragonBits

11/05/10 2:06 PM

#108218 RE: DewDiligence #108202

Hi Dew, well I am 90% long, have been since 2009, no margin, a little cash and play around with options, mostly puts, from time to time. I now have long stock positions that won't pay off till late 2011 and aren't really affected much by general stock market.

I sold out of all stocks in 2007 and went to cash, bought back in 2009 pretty near the bottom, and sold out of a lot of the big high beta stocks too early in july. Clearly a mistake, but it isn't like I lost money doing it.

So I am way above where i was in 2007.

I suppose since I did so well from the 2009 bottom it feels like i made too much money and it doesn't occur to me that others get in late. IMO the single most important thing to making money is getting in at the bottom and the next most important thing is not to lose money.

But if I were managing money for a living, I don't trade enough to really generate commisions, they don't really pay you to make one decision every 3 years.

You are a very sensitve guy, I think you should let it go.

There is such a thing as changing ones mind, it isn't like I am a perma bear or a perma bull.

I had a broker once in the old days when I was much more active trader, he said he needed me because most of his clients were in assets plays that weren't going to pay off for years, paid a dividend but his clients seldom traded. He was just being a broker because he wanted access to the market and the info. He said they wanted to get ride of him because he didn't churn his clients enough. He needed me because I traded a lot, which he thought I shouldnt do so much of. One of the few good brokers I have ever met.

I don't have a big desire to manage money, it is more about being a saleman than anything else.