It's a long report and the only other mention of Lovenox was that were raising their current estimates because they previously thought there would be more competition.
Here's what pertains to Lovenox.
Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA)
EARNINGS
3Q10 results - The Second Opinion
Credit Suisse is acting as advisor to Genzyme in connection with the announced non-binding offer received from Sanofi-Aventis. The forecasts underpinning this analysis are Sanofi-Aventis on a stand-alone basis.
¦Sanofi reported Q3 figures ahead of CS and consensus forecasts, sales were boosted by FX (+7.4pp vs CS estimate of +6pp). Vaccines in particular was strong (EUR 1226m vs consensus EUR 1072m), driven by flu (of which EUR 32m was pandemic, vs CS estimate zero) and Menactra which remained fairly robust despite the entry of Novartis’ Menveo in the US (EUR 192m vs CS estimate EUR 168m). Lantus was slightly weak (EUR 900m vs consensus EUR 932) due to US healthcare reform accruals (expected) and management highlighted the tougher US environment (economy, increased competition). The beat on the bottom line was accentuated by lower than anticipated SG&A spend (23.7% of sales vs CS estimate 24.5%). FY10 guidance has been raised to reflect better cost control and stronger product growth in Q3 and a more favourable outlook for Lovenox post generic entry.
We have raised 2010 EPS by 5% but lowered EPS in the outer years by 1% due to lower Multaq forecasts.
¦
We have updated our forecasts to reflect the more positive outlook for 2010 (higher Lovenox and Vaccines, higher COGS) which leads to a 5% boost to EPS in 2010.
Thereafter EPS is reduced by ca 1% as we have lowered our Multaq forecasts given the tougher launch experience flagged by management. With greater marketing investment recently applied to Multaq, management expect the drug to make blockbuster status
withing 2-3 years.
2010 growth in business EPS at constant exchange rates: 0 to +2% (previously 0 to -4%). This takes into account 1) generic competition for Ambien CR in the US, 2)possible entry of Taxotere generics in the US/EU and 3) further erosion of Lovenox US
sales. The increase in guidance reflects the more limited erosion of Lovenox than originally expected and good cost control.
¦ Lovenox – lost approximately half of US revenues to generic, CFO expects to retain this level (approx 50% of revenues) going forwards. Sanofi still has 67% of enoxaparin volume and feel the market is stable over the past 8 weeks with Sanofi having contracted with 6 of 7 GPOs in the hospital segment (ca 90%). In the retail market, typical generic erosion is occurring. Discounts have also increased.
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
