Have you considered that we and the Iraqi my be better off if we do not invade at all? Sorry, maybe that is too political. But it will impact the market one way or another.
Think of how different the economy is now than during the Gulf War. Post 9/11 mentality is also very different than during the Gulf war. Saddam has sold Oil rights to the Russians and the French just recently which was not the case to my knowledge during the Gulf War. I don't think anything about this war is going to be a re-run of the Gulf War.