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zipjet

10/22/10 11:46 AM

#106978 RE: ghmm #106976

55-25Elasticity of demand for L:

I can't speak to science or medical practice.

But I have heard enough comments about the high cost of L to the users that it seems pretty clear that the demand will be elastic, that is, demand will increase with reduced price.

You would need to know quite a bit about medical practice and the products that are substituted to do more than guess at the demand response.

But I like guessing. So I would suggest that in the event of a tL launch and a branded generic launch with pricing dropping another 25% that we would see an increase in unit demand in the 10% to 25% range.

I have modeled that case for royalty purposes with and without the elasticity though I have only publicly acknowledged the latter.

:-)

ij
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dewophile

10/22/10 12:35 PM

#106985 RE: ghmm #106976

in the hospital setting i don't think pricing affects demand much if at all - especially once you factor in savings from eliminating need for monitoring anticoagulation

on an outpt basis i'm sure the copays and/or out of pocket differential between lovenox and UH will enable some conversion of UH to lovenox

just a guess