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Koikaze

02/24/05 11:01 AM

#43258 RE: Koikaze #43224

I've been asked to continue posting the GROUP ACTIVITY REPORT, and will do so. I may occasionally miss some postings because of other commitments, but will be as regular and punctual as possible.

This report is intended to give an indication of the strength or weakness of groups of stocks, using a scheme which assigns a rating to each group. The calculation of the rating is shown at #msg-3064801,

Last night's report (02/23/05) (#msg-5531279) shows that group MG111 (Chemicals - Major Diversified) is strong, with a rating of 65, its best rating on its current run. By the same token, the report shows that group MG133 (Aluminum) is a weak -20, but has rebounded from its low of -35.

The DAYS section shows the most recent interest in each group. Lack of interest (i.e., low volume) is shown with an "underline" character. When increased volume is present, the nature of the interest is shown by upper case characters (strength) or lower case characters (weakness).

That is not, however, the only information that can be gleaned from the DAYS section. Occasionally, it also shows broad market strength and weakness. One such instance was in early January. I extracted the reports for January 3rd, 4th and 5th and show them below, to illustrate the indication. Only the DAYS section and Daily Summaries are shown. The original reports can be seen at:

January 3, 2005 #msg-5000112
January 4, 2005 #msg-5012680
January 5, 2005 #msg-5025538

In the DAYS Section, the breadth of the sell-off is shown by the preponderance of lower-case characters in the bolded columns. Only groups which traded more than their 90-day average volume are included in the report, so the low volume of the holiday season can be seen by the string of "underline" characters preceding the bold columns.

In the DAILY SUMMARY, the count of negative groups, which went from 137 (of 209 total groups) on the first trading day of the year to 163 on the second trading day, is strongly suggestive of a weak market.

Such extreme negative breadth is uncommon and constitutes an alert.

I hope you find some value in this indication. I'm taking the breadth weakness shown in Tuesday's report as a hint that this may not be the best time for long plays.

Fred

(The cited examples are in the next message because the original message was too long to be posted on iHub in its entirety. flg)