I'm not as confident as I would like. Here is some of my reasoning.
IMO, we have been on a see saw for several days, with the mrkt trying to decide if the latest rally is real or not. Indicators are in conflict. Market volatility index has increased. Combined with the recent run and great mrkt performance in Sept., along with investor sentiment turning bearish as reported by the Investor Sentiment Survey, I conclude that the charts are correct and the market will have a downturn. I see several stops along the way down, the first couple each of a 100 points or so. It is more unclear from there, but if I had to guess, I would say that when the first 2 downward moves occur, they will be fairly quick. I expect that it will not be enough to restore confidence or give the mrkt much of a bounce, triggering another move down.
Just my opinion, and of course it can change quickly!
We will see.
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