Replies to post #104401 on Biotech Values

[pollyvonwog]

I agree that it will take quarter numbers to actually start to move MNTA as people are certainly skeptical and you're right that overhang is there and will remain there. In regards to your 8 quarter case, you're neglecting that generic Copaxone will more than likely be on the market by then, to which there are no potential generic competitors.

If the FDA wants full characerization, than TEVA will not get approved. If FDA lowers the bar, which in my opinion they will not, then yes TEVA very well could get it. So back to my original question, why do you think TEVA will get approval? This isn't a rhetorical question, I really want to know your thoughts on why.

[Mpower]

Market gets it wrong plenty of times. SQNM market cap > 500 million $'s as of this email. It approached ~2 billion $'s several months ago based on "faulty" data.

I think MNTA will reverse aggressively back to the mid-twenties at some point in the near future.

[rkrw]

That's a reasonable way of looking at mnta.

Only thing I'd comment on is the "not too much" post Teva approval could still be $30-40M per year. That's not insignificant.

[zipjet]

Valuing EPS in a Grahm/Dodd sense requires that the future earnings stream be predictable. For that standard, the only highly probable - predictable stream, is the royalty as rkrw suggests.

But over time, certainly less than your two years, others who do not share the compunctions of GD, will see substantial earnings and apply a PE attributing a much higher value than GD or the bears think proper.

I do not think the TEVA approval is a given. It may happen. It may not. Interestingly, even if it does happen, you have to wonder if the accomplishment might depend on infringement of MNTA patents. That could dramatically change the expectations.

:-)

ij