Replies to post #358149 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[hightecheast]

Dan ... I can answer all that, but I can not show you the charts. I will give you all the specific readings though.

The charts come from a proprietary futures trading, charting and data service called Trade Navigator from Genesis Financial Technologies in Colorado Springs, CO.

I will give you the specific answers when I have time or by Monday AM.

Thanks for the comments and questions.

Ken

[hightecheast]

Dan ... good morning from State College, PA

I do not speak for either Larry Williams or Genesis. I am a client/customer. I do know that I have made a lot of money since July of 2000 by using Larry Williams methods (and Genesis software since March, 2001) by periodically trading futures contracts and/or options for a number of commodities (mostly the S&P).

First, Larry Williams and Trade Navigator (Genesis Financial Technologies) are joined at the hip. I do not know whether LW owns a piece of Genesis (or they have a licensing agreement), but Genesis staff and products were used at the at the two day LW seminar I took in March, 2001. And Genesis heavily uses LW indicators.

LW's signals and teachings are merged into portions of Trade Navigator.

Note that LW uses "weekly charts" only for set-ups, while he uses daily charts for entry or exit signals.

Bullishness or bearishness are not based purely on the net positions of the commercials, but they are important.

LW teaches (generally) (that on a scale of 0 to 100) when the commercials and sentiment are strongly positioned opposite each other, and the ADX (7) and Stochastics (14,3), (with the ADX charted directly above the Stochastics), are either paunched (bullish) or pinched (bearish), then the trend is about to change for that commodity.

I do not know how either the COT Commercials Index or Genesis Sentiment Index is calculated for each commodity.

If I have learned one thing, it is to study the commercials, not the large or small speculators.

With gold, the commercials are just about always net short by some amount as many producers still hedge their future sales.

Examples

Date
Gold Price
COT Index
Sentiment Index
ADX (7)
Stochastics (14,3)

02/11/05 - Bullish
422.0
94.76
0
37.72
14.85

11/26/04 - Bearish
449.3
9.28
81.82
44.89
98.05

04/02/04 - Bearish
422.5
0
94.29
28.21
74.15

01/09/04
426.8
1.47
92.21
60.51
97.22

It is difficult to explain a proprietary system like this without showing the charts, but gold has not had a bullish set-up like this since June, 1999 which was shortly before gold bottomed.

I hope this helps more than confuses.

I own a solid position in NEM and a bunch of gold calls for December, 2005.

Ken Wilson