Replies to post #106664 on Tornado Alley (PROG)

[hotdog1012]

Why I state that Social Security is unsustainable is from many sources, including the one Stephanie shared:

Look at Chart C and the narrative on it: http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/index.html

The SSA themselves report the deficit in Social Security. But I wouldn't stop there, I would also look to those who are non-partisan and accountable for auditing budgets and forecasts, like the CBO who issued an updated report on Social Security in July 2010 raising significant warnings if there isn't dramatic reform done now.

Also, they recently ran analysis in DI (part of SS)

"Under current law, the DI program is not financially sustainable. "

" ...by 2015, the number of people receiving DI benefits will increase to 11.4 million and total expenditures will climb to $147 billion (in 2010 dollars; see Figure 1). However, tax receipts credited to the DI trust fund will be about 20 percent less than those expenditures, and three years later, in 2018, the trust fund will be exhausted, according to CBO’s estimates."

"A number of changes could be implemented to address the trust fund’s projected exhaustion. Some would increase revenues dedicated to the program; others would reduce outlays. One approach to reducing expenditures on DI benefits would be to establish policies that would make work a more viable option for people with disabilities. However, little evidence is available on the effectiveness of such policies, and their costs might more than offset any savings from reductions in DI benefits."

http://www.cbo.gov/doc.cfm?index=11673

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/104xx/doc10457/08-07-SocialSecurity_Update.pdf

Perhaps I do sound 'careless' of the consequences. I don't intend to be. And I agree with your points on fairness to them.

Secondly, I do agree that we need a combination of cuts and taxes. However, I would contend that it's also about shifting the spending of existing revenues.

Of our current expenditures by the Fed Government, the top 5 account for approx 75% of our budget expenses:

Social Security - 19.63%
Defense - 18.74%
Unemployment / Welfare - 16.13%
Medicare - 12.79%
Medicaid/SCHIP - 8.19%

I would contend that if you:

a. removed the SS tax ceiling on income (presently 6.2% up to $106,800) and charge a flat % (like 5.5% on all income)

Lower earners would save a little on their taxes and higher earners would pay more of a fair % of their total earned income.

b. make drastic cutbacks in military spending (doesn't necessarily weaken our military)

c. Reform welfare regs to reduce abuse and overspending

I contend that this would shift enough over to stabilize SS (perhaps need to add some cuts in beneifts).


Some sources :

-According to The Christian Science Monitor, the defense budget in 2011 (including veterans' benefits and defense energy costs) will be $861 billion, more than all other countries in the world combined.

-In June, a bipartisan task force convened by Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., (and backed by Gates) released a report that identified nearly $1 trillion in possible budget savings if the Pentagon budget was pared back through 2020.