Replies to post #35306 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[wstera2]

16:27 ET Intel capex cut driven by construction savings (INTC) 16.52 +1.42: -- Update -- It's notable that Intel says the majority of its capex reduction is due to cost savings with ongoing construction projects; Intel noted on its last earnings conference call that it could drive capex savings through savings on construction projects, and that appears to be the case here. There is an important distinction between capex savings due to reduced investment in new semi equipment and due to construction savings. The news here is not as bad for semi equip cos as it appears at first glance.

16:22 ET Intel guides Q4 revs below consensus, cuts 2002 capex & gross margin forecast (INTC) 16.52 1.42: -- Update -- Expects Q4 rev to be $6.5-$6.9 bln, vs consensus of $6.9 bln, and expects 2002 capex to be about $4.7 bln, lower than the previous expectation of between $5.0-$5.2 bln. Gross margin for 2002 is expected to be about 49%, near the low end of the previous expectation of 51%.

[MyHunch]

Zeev: Realistically, do you see EXPE trading up tomorrow? I am trying my best to understand the rationale of your buy this afternoon. The stock was weak the whole day(except at the open and closed at its lows). Now trading in the 47's AH.

[jetcityrandy]

Zeev,
Forgive me if I don't read your "Hung-lish" well, but I thought you indicated (late last week) that you hypothesized market strength through Wednesday (tomorrow) to kill the Oct puts and then drop past options expiry to kill the Oct calls (with continued down) through October 22, give a day or two. Perhaps your "tongue-in-cheek" comment was more true than glib.

I assume you are still thinking this way, though now you are seeing the next low about 1200, not REALLY low, as some have indicated (1000-1100).

[Rayman]

Zeev, welcome back. I sold some stuff again today after switching my 401k into cash yesterday at 3:58pm<g, ng>. At least I have ample cash to re-deploy.

You are the expert on SOX, with INTC screwed up pretty badly, do you think the likes of AMAT, CYMI, VSEA etc can hold the low for a successful retest or they will make at least nominal new lows? I sold all of them during the past two days, and wants to buy back, but this INTC missing is quite severe.

What I most worried about is the fact that NAZ may just go to 1200 or max 1150, but some momo stocks might nose-dive again.

Your opinion is very much appreciated.

P.S. I hope this is not the March 22 2001 senerio again, I remember NAZ rallied HARD for several days in March last year, and we were dancing and thought the Jan massacre was over, then the NAZ dived again and finally hit the bottom at April 3rd(4th?), where you told me to hold on for another hour but I goddamned capitulated 12 minutes before the astronomical bounce ensued....

Enough said, you are the master of trading.

[hk2]

maximum down side I see is around 1200, and then we launch again, I still have us reaching 1388 before the end of the year.

2 1/2 months to get up another 100 points.

Sounds like an extention of "going nowhere fast" in a higher box <G>

Jim