That seems on the low side - what are you estimating for Sandoz sales? A reasonable estimate of the value is to use Novartis's P/E less say a 10% discount - that's what they could buy the rights for and remain accretive.
Of course it's hard to know what happens to the pricing in a triopoly situation, as then an AG becomes more likely. But nobody has any interest in a price war, and so maybe there wouldn't be that much price erosion.
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