Replies to post #103187 on Biotech Values

[jq1234]

Compare Aug 20 with Jun 18, new script was down 34.2%, total script down 35.7%. This might be proxy of initial generic market share around 35%.

[TripleCutter]

Great info. Not a perfect comp but I have some old IMS data for unfractionated heparin going back to 2004. There appears to be a little seasonality w the strongest months typically being December, November, January and June. July and August are about the same in volume w August slightly higher. So if there is a correlation that should bode well for nvs/mnta. 

[mcbio]

Re: MNTA - Lovenox scripts

Below are the IMS total scripts (TRx) and new scripts (NRx) filled with branded Lovenox for the weeks ending Jun 18 (before the generic launch), Aug 6 (two weeks into the generic launch), and Aug 20 (four weeks into the generic launch):
Total and New Scripts for Branded Lovenox Week TRx NRx Ending TRx Change NRx Change Jun 18 56,000 n/a 38,000 n/a Aug 06 43,000 -13,000 29,000 -9,000 Aug 20 36,000 -7,000 25,000 -4,000
Discussion: Although there could be some seasonality in the Lovenox business that would make August a little slower than June, the numbers above show clear erosion of branded Lovenox beyond what could conceivably be caused by seasonality. The only plausible explanation for such erosion is that generic Lovenox is taking share from the branded product and is doing so at an impressive clip.

Nice work Dew. I'd say that qualifies as "good news." Is the IMS data something that's publically available or at least available to some large degree and is it likely that the figures you cited should already theoretically be well known to a lot of investors and thus reflected into the share price? Or are these figures that have just been released?

[ThomasS]

MNTA: Discussion: Although there could be some seasonality in the Lovenox business that would make August a little slower than June, the numbers above show clear erosion of branded Lovenox beyond what could conceivably be caused by seasonality.

If your seasonality remark was totally off-the-cuff, couldn't it also be true that June could be a slower month than August?
Regardless, your post is appreciated as the data is "as expected."

[dewophile]

thanks dew
i assume this is for the outpatient segment of the lovenox market
it may be that hosptial market uptake is slower (just playing devils advocate aka jbog ;))
nevertheless what seems to be clear indication of good penetration into the 30-40% slice of the lovenox market is nice to see

[zipjet]

Thanks DD,

That is good.

The August 20th IMS data supports Shea's comment on August 12th that Sandoz had indeed sold out the capacity.

Accordingly, sales run rate for mL looks like $840M to $960M at 35-40% share.

I maintain that ultimately Sandoz will take 50% +/- 10% of the market by revenue. So Sandoz should attain the lower bound of that soon.

I do have one IMS question. My recollection (and this goes back so long that it may no longer be valid) is that IMS data does not pick up hospital scripts very well. Is that still true?

How long will it take Sandoz to get capacity up to the 50% unit range?

ij