10 Nis,
I wrote my post on August 4 when MNTA was trading at $21 versus your proposed $22. MNTA is currently trading essentially at my 20% downside guessestimate (your estimate had nothing to do with todays price) but obviously MNTA traded much lower than I and a good number of people on this board anticipated. Being an investor versus trader, the additional downside ended up being a buying opportunity(we hope so, but we are wrong to assume that). I have to say, you sure talk a big game for someone that repurchased their MNTA shares at $18 (btw, my downside estimate was below your re-buy).
Quote:
If you backed your statements with some support (a calculation or something) maybe more people would think your statements were reasonable versus from out-in-left field somewhere (huge disappointment if run-rate was below <$100 million, etc.).
I did post info. Sandoz came out and said they would have gross sales of >$40 mil over a six week timeperiod. Using Sandoz's statement and not taking into account the original channel stuffing, that means Sandoz is expecting GROSS SALES in the area of $100 mil/qtr.
The groupthink of this board has arrived at many rosy assumptions that I don't think will come to bear.
I was lead to believe that Sandoz would have very little sales expense. I still think Sandoz has to be fighting for every sale it makes and that costs money.
I was lead to believe sales would be automatic. Evidently there are not.
Everyone here wants to think that Momenta won the lottery, but I'm afraid that isn't true.
We won't know the real results for a quarter or two, but I have to assume that there are many organizations that are tracking sales and it is this data that has caused Momenta's price to drop.
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