Replies to post #102857 on Biotech Values

[zipjet]

That is fascinating stuff DD.

#7: There is certainly no reason to model for demand elasticity at this time especially given the modest discounting. But it likely will come in time.

#9: If you used 40% sales for Sandoz rather than 35% then the implied sales price discount is much closer to the pricing announced by Sandoz. Doing the calculation that way fits with Sandoz doing the under promise over deliver routine.

#10: I agree that launching an AG would blow a big hole in SNY's guidance.

The other inference of this analysis is that Sandoz has sold out it's production. Of course, who needs an inference if we have correctly understood Shea?

:-)

ij

[jq1234]

9. To get from a 35-40% drop in volume to the 40-50% drop in operating income calculated in #6 above, the reduction in SNY’s average selling price would have to be at most 1.0–(0.50/0.65) = 23%.

Interesting stuff. Use different combination between 35-40% and 40-50%, you get price discount range of 17% to 39%, very close to Sandoz pricing and what we heard about 40% discount for certain providers by SNY.

[EyeamBill]

SNY’s revised EPS guidance allows. . .

Excuse the question that is probably obvious to the mental giants that post on this board, but since my own personal dollars are at stake, this mental midget needs to be sure of his interpretation.

Dew, are you saying that the most SNY can further discount their price of Lovenox without either missing prior guidance, or, worse yet (for SNY) making serial downward guidance revisions is another 1300 basis points?

They've already dropped their price 1000 basis points; if my interpretation is as you intended, then that and an additional 1300 basis points means a 2300 point max reduction.

Thanks in advance for your gentle reply :-)

Bill