TSBob, I have also been invested here since 2003 and I share your concerns about the many "behind the scene" management or advisory changes over the years. How much of it is the changing needs of various individual's lives and how much is related to personality or ability problems -- we will never know but the changes have likely tripped up some of our progress.
I also have followed to some extent the Dent predictions of the changes in the economy secondary to the changing demographics. It is pretty compelling and likely to be a factor that will effect us all, yet it is not an absolute. I think that some of the unexpected changes that have occured in the last 2 years may have a buffering effect on the timing of some of the other events.
I "feel your pain" and understand your frustration. I am thankful for the latest Shareholder Letter and the detail that it provides. At the same time, I understand why you cannot get excited about the news. We have had many Shareholder Letter's in the past or news releases that implied things were falling in place and about to happen. We welcomed the news and many posted about their excitement and various predictions were posted -- only to have nothing happen and the excitement would fade over time. It is like the little boy the cried wolf; many of the longer term investors are just worn down and will no longer get excited about anything short of factual completed actions. I cannot blame you for that. I, like you didn't trade or flip this, we invested long term in the "story" and in Barnhill's reputation; we have been in for the long haul while many others treated it as just another investment that should be harvested to protect their return on their investment. Our way has been bad investing, but we were convinced that it was helpful to the company and that we would eventually get our financial return. We felt the company needed investors to believe in them and to support them through the "bad times" when the company was struggling.
I do disagree with your thoughts about the economy ruining the opportunities for the company. They have more cash by far than at any other point in their history and, assuming they get their prostrate test approved, their product is just the kind of product that would be insulated from the bad general economy. A product that is far more effective than the PSA has a real potential to displace the PSA even if its cost is the same as the PSA. Add to that the focus on getting more of the uninsured or underinsured better levels of health care is a huge factor. Tests that are more accurate and help people get treated earlier or more effectively will be viewed as paying for themselves and will be utilized at higher levels even when the rest of the economy is doing poorly. Getting this commercialized sooner rather than later would always be better, but I do "feel" like there is continuing progress and that this will eventually happen and be beneficial to investors. The delays, the dilution, and the costly missteps along the way have eroded some of the potential of our original investment, but HDVY is still "in play" and I still feel it will reach the finish line. I went in too deep many years ago, so I have not been adding shares, but I also have not been selling shares.
(Tryin, I am very sorry for the situation you are in and I am hopeful that some good news with HDVY will come out in Sept to allow the price to increase and make it so that you don't have to sell too many shares for your family's survival. This resession has been brutal on many folks. I hope that will allow you to keep some shares for the final haul to commercialization and a reward that you truely deserve.)
Mike
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