GRZ-- I just may join you. ==============================================================
G'morning Joe, That may not be a bad idea... I was thinking that GRZ's late day strength was pretty impressive and tomorrow morning's trade balance report could provide a bit of lift to the PM's providing, of course, the number ($60B?) doesn't bring the 'riggers' out in force...
Dollar Could Be Close to a Top
Rick’s Picks
Wednesday, February 9, 2005
For investors who’d rather be smart than lucky
To the many of you who are closely attuned to gold’s vital signs, let me broach the possibility that the dollar reached a short-term top yesterday. Rick’s Picks has been bullish on the buck for the last two months and recently projected a rally top in the Dollar Index at exactly 85.37. Yesterday, this hidden-pivot was exceeded by just 0.02 points, an overshoot small enough to fall within my margin of error. We should therefore anticipate weakness in the dollar over the next several days, at least, and corresponding strength in gold and the euro. Both have looked pretty sickly lately, but if they’re ready to rally, this would be a good time to get rolling.
Coincidentally, in the last two days, we established speculative long positions in two junior mining stocks that subscribers had inquired about during one of Ricks Picks’ twice-weekly Q&A sessions. One of those stocks, Durban Roodeport Deep, had been making its way down to a hidden-pivot target at 1.21 that we first advertised here on October 19. For your guidance, we will be tracking 200 shares purchased at that price, using the usual micro-tight stop-loss. We are using a stop because, as we noted earlier, DROOY could fall to as low as 0.80 if it closes beneath 1.16 for two consecutive days. Along with DROOY, we added 400 tracking shares of Canyon Resources yesterday after we were reminded by an alert subscriber that we had long ago projected a potential bottom on CAU at 0.82. About an hour into the session Canyon bounced from that price exactly, finishing the day at 0.87. We’ll use a stop-loss at 0.79 for now, since, as we pointed out intraday, this is not a trade on which one should bet the ranch.
With shares of these two junior miners rebounding modestly after hitting predicted lows, is there anything in Newmont’s behavior to corroborate a possible turnaround in precious metal shares? Perhaps. In mid-January I projected a low of 39.72 for NEM, and it has been lazily working its way down to that hidden pivot ever since. Yesterday, Newmont recorded an intraday bottom at 40.14, the lowest the stock has been since August. It’s got just a bit farther to go before it touches our target, but if that happens and the stock turns higher for the remainder of the day, it would be an encouraging sign for the precious metals sector as a whole. However, if NEM should close below 40.14, or trade below 40.00 intraday, it would be akin to the groundhog seeing his shadow: six more weeks (give or take two weeks) of “winter”.
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