Replies to post #1367 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[DonShimoda]

You asked

What percent of patients on Gleevec develop a mutation or resistance? 10%? Less than 10%?

Answer: More than 10%

Eventually, 30% of pts become resistant to gleevec(about half from mutations) and 50% become resistant to sprycel and/or tasigna.

It's a significant market whether AP534 eventually gets approved as first line treatment or not.

[ampakine]

f it were up to you, you would be giving 100% of Gleevec patients '534

Short answer: YES! If I was the patient, or if it was my mother, I would want to get the drug with the mildest side effects, and one that guarantees (if in fact it does) no recurrence of the disease.

Of course, that's assuming all other things being equal and the guiding principle is what is best for the patient. How this works out in the real world is another question, given that Gleevec will be off patent fairly soon, and the impact of Obamacare on the practice of medicine is like an ice-breaker ready to smash its target.

My guess is that 534 will prove to be best in class, and that will be a compelling factor in its use (patients still have a voice in the matter, one hopes!).

BTW, JP Morgan's laughable prognostications about 534's chances is enough to dismiss them for the scummy, totally unreliable, amoral players that they are.

So. Please do tell us..... how do you know a mutation is going to occur

It's statistical (for now). Maybe it's totally random. Nobody claims that you can predict mutations yet to happen, for an individual. Just like you can't tell who is susceptible to a new form of flu, so we all get inoculated!