Replies to post #101280 on Biotech Values

[jq1234]

In my view 16% is somewhat disappointing, but again there might be some major contracts currently in force.

It was launched for only two weeks. You basically project the rest of year will mimic the projected first 6-week launch?

[DFRAI]

jbog - mnta estimates

we know from sandoz that in the first 14 DAYS, they shipped 5 million units - stuffed the channels - see pg 8 of sandoz response

also, sandoz estimated the next 6 weeks of normalized sales would be in the range of 60 million

the rest of assumptions would be based on the volume shipped for those 6 weeks and would result in annual sales of aprox 232 million to MNTA based on 45% cut, 1 generic.

for year 2 - assuming Sandoz/MNTA grab 50% share of the market - i come up with aprox 391 million to MNTA - same 1 generic assumption

So there is a lot of room to grow sales going forward - 2nd yr of sales of aprox 80% if Sandoz/MNTA get 50% share of market which could be doable.