Replies to post #101269 on Biotech Values

[zipjet]

Then I will modify my model to repay $70M and lower my sales ramp somewhat.

I already have the NOL and tax credits in the model.

ij

[dewophile]

mnta reimbursement liability

is mnta responsible for reimbursing 100% of development expenses? if not then the expected cash flow is significantly lower

[zipjet]

…it follows that MNTA’s net cash flow from Lovenox during the first three quarters post-launch will be a minimum of $60M/0.50 = $120M, which is an annualized rate of $160M.

That is interesting.

By totally different approach, I get a similar number of ~$192M in the first 4Q's.

:-)

ij

[DFRAI]

OT - MNTA 1st year sales projections

DEwdiligence - >160 million
Zipjet - 192 million
Dfrai - 232 million

I will be very content if we can rack close to 200 million in annualized sales the first year.

Projecting out into second year, stabilized sales under 1 generic rule and 50% market share - i get close to 390 million in sales.

So my advice would be to stick with MNTA for the time being as we get 2-3 quarters of sales - analysts will revise sales quidance etc

[rkrw]

If you read the details of the agreement it indicates the payback is split but this is on top of non disclosed amount.

My read on the conference call was Wheeler as much as said he thought it would be paid back within 2 quarters.

[exwannabe]

Re: MNTAs cash flow based on reimbursement liability

The quote from Wheeler was that it would be paid off in 3 Qs if not earlier. I assume that this means before the end of Q1 '11, and maybe before the end of the year.

That would put end of Jan '11 as CW's best guess. That is just 6 months of sales.

Thus, I would go with $240M for the run rate for '11, subject to the rest of your argument that I agree with.