"mlsoft, I think that a .25% rate hike is more likely after the election, and it will give the market a boost, not a decline"
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Zeev...
I assume that you mean a rate cut - I don't know of anybody that is looking for a hike, but that would present an interesting surprise for the markets. The markets might rally if AG hit them with something that unexpected - certainly the dollar would benefit.
If the markets were significantly lower when the cut came and very oversold, we might get a decent rally for the markets that would be longer lasting - I would agree with that. If we had a cut tomorrow, I think we would get a rally but it would be short lived unless it got some help as happened in July - another rate cut here will do no more for the economy than the previous 11 cuts have. The timing of a cut would be the key to how the market reacted, and at the moment the Fed seems more worried about JPM, FNM and others than the need for cutting rates.
BTW - exactly why is it that you cannot predict precisely what is going to happen in the market at least a year ahead? - I don't understand the problem <gg>.
mlsoft
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