I think the worse case scenario starts with Teva approval, and then gets a bit worse with a Sanofi AG entering the market, thereby splitting the market 3 ways.
Either way, however, as Dew has also mentioned, long-term, if Teva is approved it devalues the proprietary tools that MNTA holds as other companies can then achieve the same ends without them.
MNTA's valuation, regardless of Lovenox soars if MNTA's proprietary tools and methodologies are required to characterize a molecule to the satisfaction of the FDA. Some other company may create its own in the future, but as of now, if Teva is not up to snuff, no company with a pending ANDA will have such capability.
My valuation range is therefore $15-$20. I see that Canaccord/Adams puts its dual generic scenario with Teva (but no mention of an AG) at $11.28 back in Nov '09 (assuming 85% probability of approval. Changing that 85% to 100% you get $13.27 present value for M-Enoxaparin in the dual generic. However, that is a conservative evaluation, which assumes $600 million peak sales on 12% royalties. They model $10 mil in '10, $30 in '11, $60 in '12, and $75 in '13.
The give M356 + M118 a similar value to what Dew derived (Dew derived $6 plus he included the rest of the IP) and give it $4.44 and $1.29 respectively for a total of $5.73. They did not toss in any cash.
On this basis, excluding cash, they give MNTA a 100% chance of M-Enoxaparin NPV of $13.27 for M-Enox + $5.73 the rest = $19/share.
They gave M356 a 40% chance of success, but with M-enoxaparin, one would think this 40% chance would also need to be upgraded. They also modeled no revs from M356 until 2015.
In addition, they list M356 as a 15% royalty. But since M356 is a more complex molecule, it is more likely to be a sole generic and therefore a 50/50 split, and not a royalty model.
In any case, the "in addition" and the "also" can go on for quite a bit, but given these modeling choices, the $19 a share for the total company appears to be a conservative estimation.
The $13.73 for M-Enox is already exceeded as MNTA got sole approval and will receive revenues much quicker than modeled.
Long and short, it appears that analyst models are putting the dual generic M-Enox scenario (excluding all else) at around $13-$15, and the entire company, in this dual scenario, excluding cash in the $18-$20 range, at least back in late '09. This would be around worse case valuation I think.
Anyone else have a go at it?
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