Replies to post #100355 on Biotech Values

[ThomasS]

MNTA: I'm sure it does, to a smaller degree than one might expect. Please allow the author of that calculation (Dew) to decide how to address it.
For my part, I don't expect it matters much. The difference between a 25% discount and 14% probably isn't linear.
Also, we are speaking of volume purchases, where any discount is material to the buyer.

[zipjet]

>>What if a lower discount impacts market share assumptions?

I do not know what the "assumptions" are.

Theoretically in a duopoly pure/perfect competition (dppc) situation the parties maximize profitability by splitting the market share 50/50. Any price cut by one must be met by the other.

A fully substitutable, not production constrained, not distribution/marketing constrained, should come close to the dppc modeling.

It seems to me that any divergence from a 50/50 split will come from distribution/marketing advantage to one or the other. As the incumbent SNY may have some advantage here. How good is Sandoz relatively on this?

So my view is that over time, perhaps a short time, the L market split iterates to 50/50.

Will this work for Copaxone as well? I doubt it. Using a Copaxone or a generic may very well be influenced by the neuros who prescribe even if mC is determined to be fully substitutable. MS neuros are a very conservative bunch, in my limited experience.

ij