Replies to post #100071 on Biotech Values

[Mpower]

This has been over-analyzed to death. This lawsuit is nothing more than noise. It will go nowhere.

[genisi]

...the way to trade this...Did I miss any angles?

Not likely in this little 3 week window, but think you forgot one angle - what if Teva is approved?

[Jonathan Robinson]

I think the initial hearing will only be on the merits of the lawsuit and grounds for a temporary injunction - no way they have time to prepare for a full trial with discovery, etc. But I am not a lawyer.

Jon

[zipjet]

Lot of questions there RockRat. :-)

Let me start with commenting on the probability of the PL issuing prior to trial. 1% Oddly, I think the odds are higher after a trial since discovery may produce useful material. 5% But if the injunction issues after a trial, expect the CoA to stay it and take it with the appeal.

I largely agree with your comments, except:

- I see SNY as maybe technically right;
- I would guess no ruling will be issued before the 19th (expiration day)

SNY has a technical argument. It is not clear that they have key facts to support it. I cannot imagine that the FDA allows trade secrets to be used for any purpose. Some sort of controls should be in place. The nature of those would be interesting.

Sullivan's docket allows the rest of the week for the Motion. So not yet clear how long it will take. But this could be a one day setting, and the judge might very well rule from the bench.

Judge Emmet Sullivan* docket shows no other matters in the week after the 8/17 setting of the motion:
https://ecf.dcd.uscourts.gov/cgi-bin/CourtSched.pl

>>Is this the same judge who heard the opening salvos?

Yes

>>When do you expect an answer to be filed by the FDA, and will you be able to post it in a timely fashion for us trading peons?

Assuming service on 7/23, answer is due 8/12.

When do you think the hearing is likely to end and a ruling made?

Don't know. Rather than guessing, let me see if I can find out how long they think the hearing will go.

>>You gonna go to the trial? Should be interesting. Maybe precedent setting, certainly an important case for the industry.

I am tempted. :-) My kind of fun. :-(

ij


* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmet_G._Sullivan